Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9C 0x9c20…a7df sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$214 (+53%) realized +$36 · open +$178
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$239
world 25% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +60.9% +45.6% 100% 100% +45.6%
≤30d 1 +60.9% +45.6% 100% 100% +45.6%
≤90d 1 +60.9% +45.6% 100% 100% +45.6%
all 1 +60.9% +45.6% 100% 100% +45.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.6% 100% +45.6%
10% +31.6% 100% +31.6%
15% +18.9% 100% +18.9%
20% +7.3% 100% +7.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$178
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $50 $208 +$158 (+316%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 60¢ 72¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$62 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 60¢ $123 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 5h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 60¢ $101 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 77¢ $0 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 74¢ $163 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 45¢ $102 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.32 · official $428.33 (match) · 7 history records