Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:53:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
9C 0x9c20…c636 politics 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%1W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 98% −$3
other 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 9 +0.1% -9.4% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses1 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage251d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $198 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $218 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $198 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Dec 19 $19 $0 +2%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 15 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 32m
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 2h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 4h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $218 7h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 8h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 12h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 19h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 21h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 21h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $198 22h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $179 23h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 26h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 27h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 31h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 33h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 34h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $15 185d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $19 185d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $19 222d
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $49 250d
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $49 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.08 · official $15.08 (match) · 23 history records