trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 100% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 24 | -5.9% | -14.9% | 83% | 4% | -9.6% |
| all | 24 | -5.9% | -14.9% | 83% | 4% | -9.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.9% | 4% | -9.6% |
| 10% | -23.0% | 4% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -30.5% | 4% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -37.3% | 0% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $770 on June 15? | No | 100¢ | 98¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$180 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on June 15? | No | 100¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 15? | No | 99¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of June 15 2026? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Apple (AAPL) close at $315-$320 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 98¢ | 72¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-27%) |
| Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$420 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? | No | 96¢ | 61¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-36%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 15? | May 16 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on May 15? | May 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CZ post 0-19 posts from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | May 15 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? | May 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 15? | May 15 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $210 on April 22? | Apr 23 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | Apr 22 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on April 21? | Apr 22 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 21? | Apr 21 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C or higher on April 21? | Apr 21 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | Apr 21 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CZ post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? | Apr 21 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C or higher on March | Apr 21 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Meta (META) close above $570 on March 26? | Mar 27 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $185 on March 26? | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on March 26? | Mar 27 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma | Mar 27 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Mar 26 | $885 | $0 | +0% |
| AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? | Mar 26 | $947 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11PM ET | Mar 26 | $2 | +$1 | +43% |
| Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 26 | $1,854 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Mar 26 | $942 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 26 | $930 | $0 | +0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET | Mar 26 | $2 | $0 | +8% |