Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c18…3839 crypto 20 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$257 (-28%) realized −$213 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% −$299
crypto 14% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 78% 28% -35.6%
≤30d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 78% 28% -35.6%
≤90d 18 -0.3% -9.8% 78% 28% -35.6%
all 18 -0.3% -9.8% 78% 28% -35.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 28% -35.6%
10% -18.4% 17% -41.8%
15% -26.3% 11% -47.4%
20% -33.5% 6% -52.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$65 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$213
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $53 $8 −$44 (-84%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Up 85¢ 80¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $52 −$24 -47%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $229 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $461 −$230 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.19 · official $10.24 (match) · 76 history records