Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
9C 0x9c18…23f7 other 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$217 (+14%) realized +$220 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%23W / 60L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$80
14 days+$222
30 days+$222
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$205
other 47% +$44
world 1% −$20
crypto 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +25.6% +13.7% 25% 25% -0.5%
≤30d 83 +9.8% -0.6% 28% 28% +4.6%
≤90d 83 +9.8% -0.6% 28% 28% +4.6%
all 83 +9.8% -0.6% 28% 28% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.6% 28% +4.6%
10% -10.1% 28% -5.4%
15% -18.8% 28% -14.5%
20% -26.8% 27% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$14 · ×3.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$220
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses23 / 60
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage12d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 49¢ 48¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 29 $8 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $8 +$64 +784%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $8 +$83 +1004%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $80 −$78 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $8 +$72 +874%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 −$13 -42%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $8 +$6 +77%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 27 $41 +$58 +143%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $20 +$16 +76%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $10 +$45 +442%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $8 +$11 +132%
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 +$154 +501%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $8 +$53 +646%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $46 +$48 +105%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $46 −$45 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 Croatia? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $8 +$11 +133%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 49¢ $61 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 11h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $20 11h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 32¢ $20 29h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $20 29h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 3 Canada? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 33h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 33h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? SELL Yes 62¢ $91 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $80 42h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 42h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 42h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 3 Portugal? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 45h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $17 45h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? SELL Yes 26¢ $15 45h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 33¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.15 · official $81.15 (match) · 130 history records