Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:19:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c18…60a5 other 238 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$43
sports 26% −$21
economics 9% −$5
culture 7% −$9
politics 7% −$8
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% −$4
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 238 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)238 / 238
History coverage134d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 238 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $621 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $288 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 15 $186 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $761 −$2 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $228 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $148 −$1 -1%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $218 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $119 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $296 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $538 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $206 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 10 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $313 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $434 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $914 −$2 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $263 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $649 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $290 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $224 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $261 −$2 -1%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $404 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $282 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $610 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $442 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $270 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $136 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $273 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $237 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $288 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $179 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $627 −$2 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $67 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $57 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $57 3h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 4h
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $57 5h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $57 9h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $57 11h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $57 13h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 15h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $57 16h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 18h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $57 22h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $57 23h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $57 31h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $57 32h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $57 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 3d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $58 3d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $58 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1357 history records