Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9C 0x9c16…4085 crypto 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$733 (+1%) realized +$733 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%78W / 63L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$572per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$360
7 days+$484
14 days+$578
30 days+$640
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$1,650
politics 10% +$391
sports 7% −$827
economics 1% −$33
crypto 0% +$30
world 0% +$2
tech 0% −$33
finance 0% −$44
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +28.7% +16.5% 82% 65% +4.2%
≤30d 70 +19.6% +8.2% 44% 39% +4.2%
≤90d 83 +11.3% +0.7% 42% 36% +1.0%
all 141 +19.3% +7.9% 55% 35% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 35% -8.3%
10% -2.4% 23% -17.1%
15% -11.8% 18% -25.1%
20% -20.5% 15% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late +18% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$66 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$733
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses78 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage352d
Avg bet$572
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (44 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $22 +$20 +92%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $49 +$10 +21%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $42 +$15 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $21 +$12 +59%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$30 +100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $23 +$69 +299%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $891 +$181 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 +$3 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $78 +$17 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $18 +$1 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,965 +$142 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $676 +$111 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $9 −$4 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 07 $14 −$12 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 06 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 03 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 03 $8 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 03 $1 $0 +36%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $107 +$16 +14%
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Shnaider Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Set 1 Winner: Mensik vs Fonseca Jun 02 $8 −$1 -17%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $50 +$13 +26%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$10 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 01 $4 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria leading at halftime? SELL Yes 85¢ $42 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $59 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 58¢ $57 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 34¢ $33 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $21 1h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 42¢ $42 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $49 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 92¢ $92 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,072 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $221 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $589 3h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $0 3h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 23¢ $23 3h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 50¢ $30 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 SELL Over 15¢ $15 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $0 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $14 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 91¢ $9 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 86¢ $95 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 62¢ $1 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 62¢ $1 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 62¢ $8 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 62¢ $1 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 62¢ $2 6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 47¢ $5 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 77¢ $8 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 57¢ $6 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1091 history records