Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9C 0x9c15…ca95 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$197 (+15%) realized +$197 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$41
14 days−$167
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$55
other 31% +$101
economics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -73.7% -76.2% 11% 11% -35.2%
≤30d 26 +2.7% -7.0% 35% 31% -10.4%
≤90d 26 +2.7% -7.0% 35% 31% -10.4%
all 34 +2.9% -6.9% 41% 38% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 38% -7.1%
10% -15.8% 35% -16.0%
15% -23.9% 29% -24.1%
20% -31.4% 26% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$21 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage154d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $34 −$28 -81%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$16 -52%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $48 +$33 +70%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $14 −$6 -40%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$52 +503%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $71 −$68 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$12 -58%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $115 −$1 -1%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $49 −$5 -10%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $16 +$16 +100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $196 −$11 -5%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $50 +$16 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$11 -72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$47 +232%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 −$23 -75%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $101 +$75 +74%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $77 −$73 -95%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $23 +$46 +194%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$75 +246%
Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 23 $40 +$40 +100%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 23 $20 +$9 +47%
Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 23 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jan 30 $20 +$28 +138%
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Jan 30 $20 +$5 +27%
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 28 $20 +$3 +15%
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $15 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $48 24h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $8 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes $9 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $62 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $3 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes $8 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 80¢ $113 12d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 62¢ $45 12d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 67¢ $49 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $115 12d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $101 12d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 98¢ $32 13d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 48¢ $16 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records