Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9C 0x9c13…99b7 sports 906 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$562 (+2%) realized +$565 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate34%308W / 588L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$175est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$249now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$266
7 days+$1,097
14 days+$1,097
30 days+$1,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$286
other 9% +$952
world 0% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +129.4% +107.6% 48% 48% +92.0%
≤30d 32 +120.2% +99.3% 50% 50% +82.6%
≤90d 359 -2.4% -11.7% 32% 32% -5.2%
all 896 -0.7% -10.2% 34% 34% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 34% -7.8%
10% -18.8% 34% -16.7%
15% -26.6% 34% -24.7%
20% -33.8% 34% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$32 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$249
Realized+$565
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses308 / 588
Est. fees paid−$175
Open positions7
Markets (closed)896 / 906
History coverage228d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 896 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-2%)
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce Besiktas 32¢ 32¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 493 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $54 +$48 +90%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $23 −$22 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $24 −$23 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$73 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $25 +$80 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 +$155 +1374%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $47 +$55 +119%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 +$74 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $17 +$89 +510%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $20 +$66 +325%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $161 +$529 +329%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 +$52 +105%
Real Madrid vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 14 $14 +$90 +650%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$92 +596%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $29 +$75 +262%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 19 $49 −$48 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 19 $53 +$49 +93%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 219.5 May 19 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? May 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 15 $46 −$45 -98%
Will SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? May 13 $13 −$12 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 May 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Toulouse FC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5 May 12 $58 +$44 +76%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $54 +$48 +90%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $53 +$49 +93%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5 May 12 $52 +$50 +97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 12 $51 +$51 +101%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 12 $51 +$51 +101%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 217.5 May 09 $51 −$51 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 09 $25 −$24 -98%
Crystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 2.5 May 09 $54 +$48 +90%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 09 $51 +$51 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $52 58m
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $43 58m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $56 58m
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $32 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 1h
Besiktas vs. Fenerbahce BUY Besiktas 32¢ $26 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 27h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 27h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $23 27h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $54 27h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $54 27h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 27h
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 27h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes $11 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $50 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 16¢ $17 3d
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin BUY Alba Berlin 23¢ $20 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $34 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $47 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $55 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $30 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $28 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $51 4d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $248.82 · official $248.82 (match) · 1309 history records