Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9C 0x9c06…c5d1 sports 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$219 (+4%) realized +$195 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%58W / 50L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$9
14 days+$31
30 days+$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$213
other 1% −$23
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -35.3% -41.5% 43% 42% -9.9%
≤30d 105 -13.5% -21.8% 53% 46% -7.6%
≤90d 108 -13.3% -21.6% 54% 46% -7.0%
all 108 -13.3% -21.6% 54% 46% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 46% -7.0%
10% -29.1% 36% -15.9%
15% -35.9% 27% -24.0%
20% -42.2% 23% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$15 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$132
Realized+$195
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses58 / 50
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 113
History coverage32d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 72¢ 70¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 61¢ 100¢ $25 $41 +$16 (+64%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 50¢ 100¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$29 +29%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $22 +$3 +16%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $216 +$28 +13%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 +$13 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $121 −$4 -4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $186 +$36 +19%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$18 +61%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$9 +57%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$33 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$26 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $35 −$35 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $20 +$5 +26%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$9 +17%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$2 -11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 +$11 +46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $401 +$53 +13%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $26 +$5 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $15 +$7 +46%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $35 +$9 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $25 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 57¢ $20 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 45h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 86¢ $22 46h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 72¢ $74 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY 23¢ $10 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 82¢ $201 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 59¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 53¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 86¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 74¢ $15 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 63¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 62¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 84¢ $136 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 63¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 59¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 65¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 60¢ $51 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 54¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.43 · official $132.43 (match) · 300 history records