Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9bff…e37c crypto 1621 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 31d only
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,478 (+6%) realized +$1,476 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%1148W / 468L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day58.9pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$269
14 days+$151
30 days+$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$772
other 9% −$265
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 398 +0.7% -8.9% 69% 69% -5.2%
≤30d 1521 +2.4% -7.4% 71% 71% -7.4%
≤90d 1616 +2.4% -7.3% 71% 71% -7.7%
all 1616 +2.4% -7.3% 71% 71% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 71% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 69% -16.5%
15% -24.3% 33% -24.6%
20% -31.7% 19% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$1,476
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1148 / 468
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1616 / 1621
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$15
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1616 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 80¢ 100¢ $39 $49 +$10 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 59¢ 100¢ $21 $35 +$14 (+69%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Up 59¢ 100¢ $6 $11 +$4 (+69%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 66¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+51%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $42 +$13 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $27 +$26 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $34 +$13 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$4 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $29 +$10 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$9 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$12 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $18 +$6 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$16 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$6 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$8 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $22 +$19 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$3 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$13 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $23 +$12 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$2 +27%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 50m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $7 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $31 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $34 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $29 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $6 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $32 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $35 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $6 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $23 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $18 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.99 · official $102.53 (match) · 3500 history records