Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9bfd…87f3 politics 100 markets active 6d ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,397 (-12%) realized −$7,213 · open +$816
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate58%53W / 39L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$547per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$6,164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$7,854
world 23% +$1,612
other 9% −$1,045
economics 5% −$26
crypto 3% +$780
sports 2% −$39
tech 1% +$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +7.2% -3.0% 100% 0% -3.0%
≤30d 1 +7.2% -3.0% 100% 0% -3.0%
≤90d 16 -50.7% -55.4% 31% 19% +1.0%
all 92 -20.6% -28.1% 58% 28% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 28% -22.7%
10% -35.0% 20% -30.1%
15% -41.3% 14% -36.9%
20% -47.0% 8% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$600) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$344 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$6,164
Realized−$7,213
Unrealized+$816
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses53 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)92 / 100
History coverage599d
Avg bet$547
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 91¢ 93¢ $2,685 $2,762 +$77 (+3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 72¢ 100¢ $1,800 $2,491 +$691 (+38%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 76¢ 81¢ $380 $405 +$25 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 87¢ 92¢ $300 $319 +$19 (+6%)
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $87 $90 +$3 (+3%)
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+5%)
US recognize Somaliland by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 88¢ $42 $44 +$3 (+7%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? No 25¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $501 +$36 +7%
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -80%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 24 $31 −$30 -95%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $811 +$190 +23%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 21 $471 +$232 +49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Apr 15 $5 −$3 -67%
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? Apr 13 $82 −$80 -97%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $704 +$302 +43%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$2 -96%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Mar 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Mar 19 $198 −$198 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by Monday? Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Mar 19 $86 −$86 -100%
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? Feb 28 $600 +$90 +15%
US strike on Colombia by January 31? Feb 03 $15 $0 +2%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $15 $0 +2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 03 $13 +$2 +14%
US strike on Cuba by January 31? Feb 03 $15 $0 +2%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $95 +$5 +6%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 03 $73 +$27 +37%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Feb 03 $184 +$52 +28%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 03 $2,295 +$200 +9%
Will China GDP growth in Q4 2025 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? Jan 22 $94 +$6 +6%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jan 09 $78 +$31 +40%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 06 $29 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 03 $163 +$14 +9%
US recession in 2025? Jan 03 $159 +$53 +33%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 03 $490 +$76 +16%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jan 03 $940 +$60 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 03 $2,816 +$384 +14%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran before August? Aug 02 $146 +$17 +12%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August? Jul 06 $609 −$609 -100%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Jul 02 $376 +$22 +6%
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? Jul 02 $149 −$16 -11%
Will the Iranian regime fall before July? Jul 02 $465 +$35 +8%
Israel strike on Iran on June 24? Jun 24 $52 +$3 +6%
US military action against Iran before August? Jun 22 $92 −$92 -100%
Israel strike on Iran on June 20? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 13 $510 +$388 +76%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 13 $640 −$639 -100%
Negative GDP growth in Q1 2025? May 15 $284 −$284 -100%
Trump takes Panama Canal in first 100 days? May 15 $283 +$17 +6%
X allowed to operate in China before May? May 08 $643 +$25 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $770 +$45 +6%
OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025? Apr 01 $20 +$41 +203%
Will Elon Musk buy MSNBC? Apr 01 $599 +$44 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 87¢ $302 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1,500 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 93¢ $501 6d
Will Chelsea win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 38d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes $0 53d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? SELL No $2 54d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL No 99¢ $702 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $810 59d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $73 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 60d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes $1 63d
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? BUY No 23¢ $31 63d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $72 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 63d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 63d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY No 71¢ $355 69d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 70¢ $704 76d
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30? SELL No $2 79d
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes $0 81d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 72¢ $1,800 93d
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 109d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 109d
Will Hannah Spencer win the Gorton and Denton by-election? BUY Yes 87¢ $600 110d
Nothing Ever Happens: January SELL No 50¢ $45 158d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,163.56 · official $6,159.91 (match) · 610 history records