Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:44:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
9B 0x9bf6…50e2 world 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,436 (+6%) realized +$1,291 · open +$145
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate62%34W / 21L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4,142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$593
7 days+$999
14 days+$1,113
30 days+$1,316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$349
tech 22% +$214
sports 17% +$1,037
other 12% +$15
finance 7% +$234
crypto 5% +$333
economics 1% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +8.0% -2.3% 60% 55% +9.5%
≤30d 55 +11.6% +1.0% 62% 53% -2.6%
≤90d 55 +11.6% +1.0% 62% 53% -2.6%
all 55 +11.6% +1.0% 62% 53% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 53% -2.6%
10% -8.7% 45% -11.9%
15% -17.5% 31% -20.4%
20% -25.6% 18% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$141 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$4,142
Realized+$1,291
Unrealized+$145
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses34 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions15
Markets (closed)55 / 70
History coverage33d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 73¢ 92¢ $460 $580 +$119 (+26%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 84¢ 95¢ $504 $567 +$63 (+13%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 72¢ 93¢ $432 $558 +$126 (+29%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 60¢ 87¢ $361 $525 +$164 (+45%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $262 $260 −$2 (-1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 66¢ 64¢ $264 $258 −$6 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $242 $205 −$37 (-15%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? No 83¢ 92¢ $173 $193 +$20 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $180 $186 +$6 (+3%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $188 $186 −$2 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $875B by June 30? Yes 51¢ 60¢ $139 $162 +$24 (+17%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $134 $133 −$1 (-1%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 78¢ 62¢ $156 $123 −$33 (-21%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $172 $119 −$53 (-31%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 55¢ 14¢ $330 $87 −$243 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $277 +$133 +48%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 20 $264 +$31 +12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $193 +$187 +97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 20 $211 +$189 +90%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $144 −$108 -75%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $338 +$162 +48%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $67 −$42 -63%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 18 $210 −$24 -11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $279 +$121 +43%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? Jun 17 $251 +$8 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $58 −$57 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $271 +$129 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $170 −$109 -64%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $63 −$21 -34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $520 −$312 -60%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $476 +$523 +110%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $263 +$129 +49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $217 −$85 -39%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $300 +$98 +33%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $175 +$46 +26%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $220 −$220 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $90 +$163 +181%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $814 +$186 +23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $250 +$70 +28%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $121 −$120 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $156 −$36 -23%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $280 +$279 +100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 10 $240 −$24 -10%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by June 30? Jun 10 $192 −$164 -86%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $109 +$89 +81%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $191 +$201 +105%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 08 $240 −$114 -48%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $797 +$83 +10%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? Jun 08 $359 −$279 -78%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $140 −$24 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $236 +$70 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $180 −$180 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $278 +$138 +50%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1,539 +$94 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $583 +$165 +28%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Raphael Collignon May 30 $20 +$80 +400%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $587 −$580 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $384 −$140 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $620 +$108 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 28 $270 +$81 +30%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 27 $76 −$64 -84%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $179 +$115 +64%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 27 $4 +$2 +43%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 27 $902 +$61 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $252 −$252 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 66¢ $66 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 66¢ $147 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 66¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $52 1h
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $112 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $265 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? BUY No 66¢ $50 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $295 10h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $191 10h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $277 13h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $193 15h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Scotland 52¢ $211 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 18¢ $28 17h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 17h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 78¢ $129 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $338 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 78¢ $16 2d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 78¢ $12 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $9 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $7 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $23 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $22 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $11 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 72¢ $72 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,141.99 · official $4,141.99 (match) · 505 history records