Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:05:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9B 0x9bf4…10bc crypto 1460 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 109d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$353 (+1%) realized +$376 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate90%1312W / 147L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$530now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$261
7 days+$481
14 days+$445
30 days+$445
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$134
other 5% +$548
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +19.1% +7.8% 100% 50% +15.1%
≤30d 11 +4.0% -5.9% 91% 27% +10.7%
≤90d 716 -7.5% -16.3% 85% 11% -11.0%
all 1459 -0.4% -9.9% 90% 31% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 31% -8.4%
10% -18.5% 5% -17.1%
15% -26.4% 1% -25.1%
20% -33.6% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$28 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$530
Realized+$376
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses1312 / 147
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1459 / 1460
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$38
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1459 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $553 $530 −$23 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $405 +$261 +64%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$12 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $960 +$190 +20%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$5 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET May 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET May 21 $300 −$300 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 20 $100 +$7 +7%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9AM ET May 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9AM ET May 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 19 $50 −$49 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 19 $50 +$3 +7%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 18 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 18 $50 +$4 +8%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 18 $49 +$5 +9%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET May 18 $50 +$4 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 18 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET May 18 $50 +$3 +7%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 17 $49 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $50 +$3 +7%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $49 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10PM ET May 15 $300 +$19 +6%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 12PM ET May 14 $301 −$300 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET May 14 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9AM ET May 14 $177 −$177 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 13, 9AM ET May 13 $35 +$3 +9%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 13 $50 +$5 +10%
BNB Up or Down - May 13, 4AM ET May 13 $129 +$9 +7%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 12PM ET May 12 $100 +$6 +6%
XRP Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET May 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10AM ET May 12 $98 +$15 +16%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 9AM ET May 12 $249 +$16 +6%
XRP Up or Down - May 11, 1PM ET May 11 $22 +$2 +7%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 11 $49 +$5 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $666 53m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $405 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 26h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $566 26h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $100 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,150 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $960 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $49 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 7d
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $13 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $300 33d
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $179 33d
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 33d
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 33d
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 9AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 33d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 34d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 35d
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 9AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 35d
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 35d
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $50 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 36d
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $530.19 · official $530.19 (match) · 3500 history records