Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9B 0x9bf1…df74 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$281 (+26%) realized +$284 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$136
7 days+$283
14 days+$263
30 days+$276
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$272
sports 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +56.1% +41.2% 100% 100% +20.0%
≤30d 9 +14.6% +3.7% 67% 67% +17.5%
≤90d 9 +14.6% +3.7% 67% 67% +17.5%
all 9 +14.6% +3.7% 67% 67% +17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 67% +17.5%
10% -6.3% 44% +6.3%
15% -15.3% 44% -4.0%
20% -23.6% 22% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$10 · ×5.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.2 per $1 lost it wins $10.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$284
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 16
History coverage15d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 50¢ $36 $37 +$1 (+3%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$4 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $359 +$76 +21%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $300 +$60 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $58 +$81 +140%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $151 +$66 +44%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $14 +$6 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.35 · official $37.35 (match) · 22 history records