Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:17:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bee…768c other 95 markets active 22h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$36 (-6%) realized −$33 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$80
culture 35% −$66
crypto 8% −$21
sports 3% −$15
politics 2% −$14
tech 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -67.3% -70.4% 12% 12% -7.3%
≤30d 18 -59.6% -63.4% 17% 11% -7.2%
≤90d 73 -16.8% -24.7% 36% 30% -17.2%
all 84 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 35% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 35% -16.4%
10% -27.8% 31% -24.4%
15% -34.7% 26% -31.7%
20% -41.1% 20% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)84 / 95
History coverage153d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $17 $14 −$3 (-17%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 22¢ 26¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $11 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 10¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+48%)
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? Yes 30¢ 2¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 200k and 250k? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Slavia Prague win Czechia Fortuna Liga? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 16 $17 +$35 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 11 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 24 $1 $0 -1%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu May 23 $4 $0 +5%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $2 +$4 +218%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1 +$2 +137%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 16 $3 +$6 +220%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 16 $2 +$5 +194%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 15 $1 +$4 +770%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be at least 600k? May 15 $6 +$1 +10%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 15 $11 +$7 +63%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 14 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 05 $1 +$1 +118%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? Apr 25 $4 +$3 +70%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? Apr 25 $1 $0 +22%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $23 +$42 +187%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 11 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 10 $2 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Will MrBeast say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his next vid Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 275k and 300k? Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 250k and 275k? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 225k and 250k? Apr 04 $2 −$1 -78%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 175k and 200k? Apr 04 $4 −$3 -69%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be between 300k and 400k? Apr 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 150k? Apr 04 $13 −$7 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 22h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 22h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL Yes 35¢ $7 6d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 8d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 28¢ $3 9d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $3 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 24d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu SELL Yes 21¢ $4 25d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 27d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 25¢ $2 27d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 30d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 30d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 30d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 30d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 30d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 30d
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.93 · official $77.94 (match) · 385 history records