Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9B 0x9be9…7017 weather 465 markets active 12h ago coverage 44d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,299 (+26%) realized +$3,298 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%199W / 264L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day73.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 44d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$484
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 108 +6.4% -3.8% 45% 40% -1.1%
≤30d 299 +3.8% -6.1% 49% 28% -5.3%
≤90d 463 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 29% -6.0%
all 463 +0.7% -8.9% 43% 29% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 29% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 24% -15.0%
15% -25.6% 21% -23.2%
20% -32.9% 19% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$3,298
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses199 / 264
Open positions2
Markets (closed)463 / 465
History coverage44d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day73.8
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 17? No 86¢ 100¢ $32 $37 +$5 (+15%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$21 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$16 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$6 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $32 +$80 +249%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$5 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$22 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$5 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $21 +$13 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 16 $20 −$11 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 16 $14 −$8 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 16 $7 +$12 +165%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 16 $7 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 +$32 +333%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 +$8 +115%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +171%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$18 +307%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 16? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +194%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +104%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$3 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$5 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$15 +187%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +61%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $191 +$9 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $18 +$21 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 93¢ $43 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 9¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 92¢ $42 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 17¢ $6 22h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 78¢ $4 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL No 78¢ $16 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 82¢ $8 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? SELL No 49¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? BUY No 50¢ $7 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 67¢ $17 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.93 · official $36.93 (match) · 3500 history records