Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:50:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9be7…f27a crypto 106 markets active 2d ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$63 (-19%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%27W / 79L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$50
other 40% −$8
sports 18% −$14
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -29.0% -35.7% 26% 26% -35.8%
≤30d 19 -29.0% -35.7% 26% 26% -35.8%
≤90d 106 -30.1% -36.8% 25% 25% -31.0%
all 106 -30.1% -36.8% 25% 25% -31.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.8% 25% -31.0%
10% -42.8% 25% -37.6%
15% -48.3% 25% -43.7%
20% -53.4% 23% -49.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses27 / 79
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage47d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (69 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +324%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Sevilla FC vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 +$5 +476%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-18? May 17 $1 $0 -11%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will AS Roma vs. SS Lazio end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 15 $3 +$7 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 15 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET May 15 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 15 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 15 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 15 $2 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 29¢ $3 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 31d
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records