Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9be5…ae31 crypto 395 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-1%) realized −$42 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate77%303W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$30
14 days−$19
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% −$28
politics 15% −$2
other 14% −$2
sports 9% −$13
world 6% −$1
economics 2% −$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -49.9% -54.7% 43% 29% -64.0%
≤30d 46 -3.7% -12.9% 80% 22% -14.3%
≤90d 187 -2.0% -11.4% 89% 6% -11.4%
all 393 -1.5% -10.9% 77% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 4% -10.3%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.8%
15% -27.2% 2% -26.7%
20% -34.3% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$42
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses303 / 90
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)393 / 395
History coverage142d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 74¢ 48¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$1 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $5 +$2 +38%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +9%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 09 $5 +$7 +129%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$3 +61%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $7 +$9 +124%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 +$8 +79%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $5 +$5 +89%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $5 +$3 +64%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $15 −$11 -71%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-05-17? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11PM ET May 29 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET May 29 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $18 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET May 27 $13 +$1 +4%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1AM ET May 26 $12 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3PM ET May 21 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4PM ET May 20 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6PM ET May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET May 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10AM ET May 15 $7 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 80¢ $5 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $9 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $5 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 95¢ $6 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 76¢ $5 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 83¢ $5 6d
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 66¢ $9 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $10 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $7 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 72¢ $5 7d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $10 7d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 43¢ $5 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 62¢ $5 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $9 8d
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 45¢ $5 9d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $7 9d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 86¢ $6 9d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $10 10d
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) BUY Knicks 91¢ $10 10d
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 14.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 11d
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs BUY San Francisco Giants 61¢ $5 11d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $7 12d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Spurs 68¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 14d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 81¢ $9 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 15d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.96 · official $10.96 (match) · 1616 history records