Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:53:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9B 0x9be3…88b6 crypto 462 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 84d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$392 (-11%) realized −$358 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%277W / 180L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day35.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$291now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$111
other 9% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 457 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 55% -6.5%
all 457 +5.0% -5.0% 61% 55% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 55% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 38% -15.4%
15% -22.4% 21% -23.6%
20% -30.0% 12% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$291
Realized−$358
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses277 / 180
Open positions5
Markets (closed)457 / 462
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day35.2
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 457 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $75 $69 −$6 (-8%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 31 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 31 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 31 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 31 $1 +$3 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Mar 31 $1 +$2 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Mar 31 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 31 $1 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Mar 31 $4 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 31 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Mar 31 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 30 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 30 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 30 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Mar 30 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 30 $11 +$11 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 30 $17 −$10 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 30 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 30 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 30 $14 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 30 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 30 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 30 $9 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 30 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 30 $16 +$11 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $77 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $291.39 · official $291.39 (match) · 3500 history records