Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9be2…5147 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate46%19W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$10
world 36% +$9
politics 12% $0
sports 6% +$3
economics 3% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +2.6% -7.2% 50% 0% -6.8%
≤30d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 10 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 0% -7.8%
all 41 +0.9% -8.7% 46% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -9.4%
10% -17.4% 2% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses19 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage325d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 82¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $79 +$1 +1%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $70 +$7 +10%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $49 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $4 $0 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $17 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $44 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $42 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jan 30 $104 −$10 -10%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $134 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $65 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $9 +$3 +30%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $31 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 22 $62 $0 -0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $59 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Nov 19 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $37 $0 -1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $6 $0 +7%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $41 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 30 $40 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 29 $39 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $14 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $52 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $52 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $40 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $3 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $43 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $2 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $8 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $27 21h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $21 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $7 27h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 73¢ $22 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 73¢ $4 30h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $2 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $4 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $33 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $10 33h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $45 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $49 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $49 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $36 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $35 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $1 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $17 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.15 · official $51.15 (match) · 192 history records