Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9be1…77b1 crypto 835 markets active 6d ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$21 (-1%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%467W / 368L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day39.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$40
14 days−$44
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 -11.0% -19.5% 56% 56% -18.1%
≤30d 658 -3.1% -12.4% 53% 53% -12.6%
≤90d 835 -3.8% -12.9% 56% 56% -12.7%
all 835 -3.8% -12.9% 56% 56% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 56% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 55% -21.0%
15% -28.9% 46% -28.7%
20% -35.8% 37% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses467 / 368
Open positions0
Markets (closed)835 / 835
History coverage27d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day39.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 835 Trades
no open positions (334 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1396 history records