Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
9B 0x9be0…b5fd crypto 123 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,893 (+7%) realized +$11,855 · open −$4,962
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%66W / 56L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$771per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$258est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 175d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$5,383
sports 29% −$6,204
crypto 27% +$1,411
world 6% −$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -36.6% -42.6% 12% 12% -87.8%
≤30d 85 -3.4% -12.6% 49% 41% -6.7%
≤90d 102 -1.1% -10.5% 55% 46% -4.2%
all 122 -3.0% -12.2% 54% 44% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 44% -4.0%
10% -20.6% 34% -13.2%
15% -28.3% 22% -21.6%
20% -35.3% 19% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$745) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$381 vs −$356 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$3,210
Realized+$11,855
Unrealized−$4,962
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses66 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$258
Open positions1
Markets (closed)122 / 123
History coverage175d
Avg bet$771
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 122 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 16¢ $8,172 $3,210 −$4,962 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $746 −$711 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $209 +$535 +257%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $2,727 −$2,516 -92%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $697 −$690 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $248 −$234 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $45 +$203 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $7 −$7 -94%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $2,598 −$2,562 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $482 −$350 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$153 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 22 $203 −$203 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 22 $1,202 −$1,202 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 22 $298 −$298 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 22 $448 −$426 -95%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $697 −$693 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $609 +$89 +14%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $465 +$135 +29%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,368 +$2,090 +62%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $6,469 −$474 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $70 −$67 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$50 +242%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $126 −$120 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $443 −$267 -60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,615 +$1,307 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $43 −$41 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $65 +$30 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $44 −$41 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$27 +159%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2,507 +$501 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,919 +$588 +31%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,995 −$74 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $500 −$477 -95%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $241 +$20 +8%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $314 +$168 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $323 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $427 +$14 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$14 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $620 −$590 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $29 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $8,286 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $308 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $432 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $209 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? SELL No 7¢ $211 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY No 88¢ $2,727 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $697 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $245 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $45 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $7 6d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $2,598 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $132 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $199 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $283 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $603 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $599 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $298 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $193 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $255 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 81¢ $697 7d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $609 7d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $465 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 61¢ $3,368 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,210.48 · official $3,210.48 (match) · 312 history records