Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9B
0x9bde…c82f
other · 191 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$356 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$381 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$11
Realized−$381
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses35 / 151
Open positions5
Markets (closed)186 / 191
History coverage589d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 5 History 186 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1? Yes 19¢ 40¢ $3 $6 +$3 (+113%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+52%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Marty Supreme win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? No 10¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $271 $0 −$271 (-100%)
North Korea missile launch by February 28? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $630b on February 28? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 7 awards at the Oscars? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $270 $0 −$270 (-100%)
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MrBeast hit 472 Million subscribers by March 31? No 1¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of April 20 2026? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will "Frankenstein" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? No 5¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Ricky Martin perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? No 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Jun 13 $1 +$7 +698%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 05 $5 −$5 -99%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 24 $2 −$2 -93%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of April 20 2026? Apr 24 $2 −$2 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? Apr 24 $2 +$4 +183%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 Apr 19 $2 −$2 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Apr 19 $6 −$6 -96%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Apr 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Apr 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 09 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 09 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 09 $8 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 09 $24 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 09 $54 −$46 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Apr 09 $107 −$105 -98%
Will MrBeast hit 120.5 billion views by April 30? Apr 09 $10 −$7 -70%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 09 $5 $0 -2%
Will MrBeast hit 120 billion views by April 30? Apr 09 $19 −$13 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 09 $291 −$277 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 09 $281 −$271 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Apr 09 $150 −$145 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Apr 09 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Apr 09 $7 +$22 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will MrBeast hit 119.5 billion views by April 30? Apr 08 $5 +$6 +122%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week Apr 08 $13 +$27 +205%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15? Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week Apr 06 $26 −$12 -47%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 110 million views on wee Apr 06 $5 +$2 +34%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 06 $60 −$5 -8%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 06 $75 +$49 +66%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week Apr 05 $15 −$15 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $71 −$22 -31%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 110 million or more views on week 1? Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be grea Apr 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" score at least 45 on the Rotten To Apr 03 $8 −$8 -100%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be betw Apr 03 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m? Mar 30 $145 +$215 +148%
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and Mar 30 $4 $0 +9%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and Mar 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8 Mar 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "They Will Kill You" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and Mar 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 39% −$803
other 20% +$609
culture 19% +$144
politics 14% −$211
world 5% −$90
tech 3% −$30
sports 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 4¢ $3 13h
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get 18 million or more views on day 1 BUY Yes 19¢ $3 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 1¢ $1 40d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 25¢ $2 42d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week BUY Yes 25¢ $2 42d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week BUY Yes 9¢ $2 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 51d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $352.50 Week of April 20 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 51d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? SELL Yes 62¢ $6 51d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 52d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 52d
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 52d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 55d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 18¢ $1 56d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 10¢ $3 56d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 22¢ $3 56d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 56d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 56d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 5¢ $1 56d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 0¢ $2 56d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $11 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 66d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 66d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +698.2% +622.2% 100% 100% +622.2%
≤30d 1 +698.2% +622.2% 100% 100% +622.2%
≤90d 64 +6.4% -3.7% 25% 23% -27.8%
all 186 -8.0% -16.8% 19% 17% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 17% -28.2%
10% -24.8% 17% -35.1%
15% -32.0% 15% -41.4%
20% -38.7% 14% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.77 · official $10.77 (match) · 514 history records