Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:53:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
9B 0x9bdd…6da4 other 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 216d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,056 (-4%) realized −$3,039 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%124W / 77L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$369per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$558
30 days−$658
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$49
finance 22% −$148
crypto 16% −$1,752
sports 4% +$61
weather 3% +$249
world 3% −$1,071
politics 1% −$442
economics 1% −$37
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 54 -14.5% -22.6% 48% 41% -21.4%
≤90d 62 -16.2% -24.2% 50% 40% -22.7%
all 201 -2.2% -11.5% 62% 43% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 43% -13.4%
10% -20.0% 28% -21.7%
15% -27.7% 18% -29.2%
20% -34.8% 12% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$178 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

216d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$3,039
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses124 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)201 / 202
History coverage216d
Avg bet$369
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 26¢ $25 $8 −$17 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the announcers say "Dana White" during UFC 250? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -19%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $25 +$9 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $12 −$5 -39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $23 −$6 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$9 +111%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$6 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$8 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$3 -68%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $200 −$123 -61%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $34 +$1 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $155 −$9 -6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $157 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $481 −$45 -9%
Will RH (RH) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $244 +$29 +12%
Will Adobe (ADBE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -82%
Will Oracle (ORCL) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 10 $800 −$304 -38%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June Jun 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $9 −$9 -100%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $10 +$8 +78%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 09 $10 +$8 +82%
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 09 $10 +$9 +92%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 09 $11 −$11 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 09 $12 +$9 +74%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $15 +$11 +69%
Will Vail Resorts (MTN) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 08 $87 +$12 +14%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 06 $231 −$21 -9%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 164.5 Jun 05 $53 −$53 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 05 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $423 −$419 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $356 +$153 +43%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 175.5 Jun 03 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-14.5) Jun 03 $55 +$45 +83%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 03 $49 +$51 +104%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-7.5) Jun 03 $51 +$49 +96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $435 +$44 +10%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 02 $125 +$55 +44%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $404 +$58 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $84 +$16 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $26 1h
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8d
Will the announcers say "Dana White" during UFC 250? BUY No 27¢ $1 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 9d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $14 9d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 16m? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 9d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 98¢ $34 10d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 94¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 16¢ $4 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 36¢ $9 10d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $25 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 41¢ $17 10d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? SELL Yes 81¢ $17 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 53¢ $23 10d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $25 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $17 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $17 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $15 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $2 10d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.16 · official $8.16 (match) · 511 history records