Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:35:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9B 0x9bdd…0872 weather 7 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$296 (+20%) realized +$300 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$207per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% +$149
other 12% +$129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +28.8% +16.5% 100% 80% +9.1%
≤30d 5 +28.8% +16.5% 100% 80% +9.1%
≤90d 5 +28.8% +16.5% 100% 80% +9.1%
all 5 +28.8% +16.5% 100% 80% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.5% 80% +9.1%
10% +5.4% 60% -1.3%
15% -4.8% 20% -10.9%
20% -14.1% 20% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$300
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage3d
Avg bet$207
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 21? No 67¢ 59¢ $59 $52 −$7 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 21? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $18 $21 +$3 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $177 +$129 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $543 +$34 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $133 +$34 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $443 +$66 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Jun 19 $77 +$18 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.01 · official $72.38 (match) · 16 history records