Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:48:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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9B 0x9bdb…a90d sports 730 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 224d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,130 (-20%) realized −$16,141 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%220W / 606L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$111per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$301now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 224d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$1,526
crypto 22% −$3,789
other 10% −$4,806
politics 7% −$1,407
world 2% −$495
tech 1% −$961
weather 1% +$503
economics 1% −$283
culture 0% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-39.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -91.0% -91.8% 4% 4% -96.2%
≤30d 187 -77.0% -79.2% 11% 11% -82.8%
≤90d 191 -74.3% -76.8% 12% 12% -80.9%
all 826 -32.9% -39.3% 27% 26% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.3% 26% -33.8%
10% -45.1% 25% -40.2%
15% -50.4% 23% -45.9%
20% -55.3% 22% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -19% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$104 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$301
Realized−$16,141
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses220 / 606
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions4
Markets (closed)826 / 730
History coverage224d ⚠
Avg bet$111
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 826 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? No 12¢ 14¢ $116 $133 +$18 (+15%)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Los Angeles Sparks 30¢ 32¢ $67 $72 +$5 (+7%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 38¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 26¢ 22¢ $58 $48 −$10 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Emiliana Arango Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on No Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on October 11? Jun 22 $384 −$384 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 22 $70 −$70 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 2, 3AM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 65°F or higher on November 7 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 4PM ET Jun 22 $384 −$384 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Phil Laak win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $108K on August 27? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Tennessee vs. Kentucky Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $122k in October? Jun 22 $705 −$705 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 3PM ET Jun 22 $249 −$249 -100%
Will Jasper win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arnav win the ETH Perpswick EdgeX trading competition? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will artsch00lreject win the ETH Perpswick EdgeX trading competition? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Rina Saigo vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Septe Jun 22 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Kristen Foxen win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Francisco Comesana Jun 22 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 26? Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana above $200 on August 27? Jun 22 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 1PM ET Jun 22 $156 −$156 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on No Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on September 5? Jun 22 $312 −$312 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Alycia Parks vs Lin Zhu Jun 22 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 3PM ET Jun 22 $262 −$189 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 2, 4AM ET Jun 22 $103 −$103 -100%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on No Jun 22 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 9AM ET Jun 22 $263 −$263 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $110K on August 26 at 4PM ET? Jun 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11AM ET Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 4, 8AM ET Jun 22 $400 −$400 -100%
Jiangxi Open: Anna Blinkova vs Chloe Paquet Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 7, 3AM ET Jun 22 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $108K and $110K on August 27? Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Ethereum above $4400 on August 27? Jun 22 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin above $111.5K on August 27 at 4PM ET? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bulls vs. Magic Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Jun 22 $200 −$200 -100%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Alex de Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 64°F or higher on Nov Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on October 3 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 4, 6AM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $51 1h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 26¢ $26 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $3 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $56 1h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY Los Angeles Sparks 34¢ $42 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $90 1h
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 2¢ $7 4h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $23 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $9 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $53 4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 5h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $12 5h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $34 5h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $19 5h
ITF Tulsa: Jeffrey John Wolf vs Gavin Young BUY Gavin Young 17¢ $21 5h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv SELL Hapoel Tel-Aviv 99¢ $125 5h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 59¢ $30 7h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 48¢ $15 7h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 37¢ $9 7h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 36¢ $11 7h
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv BUY Hapoel Tel-Aviv 36¢ $14 7h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 99¢ $79 7h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 57¢ $46 9h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 55¢ $56 9h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 33¢ $74 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.39 · official $301.39 (match) · 3500 history records