Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
9B 0x9bd7…96d3 other 526 markets active 1h ago coverage 575d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$3,053 (+15%) realized +$3,053 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate66%345W / 176L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$174
14 days+$178
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1,364
world 29% +$928
politics 22% +$652
crypto 1% −$25
tech 1% +$142
sports 0% −$2
economics 0% −$39
weather 0% +$3
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +36.1% +23.1% 81% 50% +5.2%
≤30d 72 +36.7% +23.6% 61% 47% +7.4%
≤90d 156 +21.4% +9.8% 59% 46% +6.2%
all 521 +36.7% +23.6% 66% 53% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.6% 53% +3.8%
10% +11.8% 42% -6.1%
15% +1.0% 31% -15.2%
20% -8.9% 24% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.78 per $1 lost it wins $3.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

575d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$3,053
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses345 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)521 / 526
History coverage575d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 521 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 23¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? No 25¢ 68¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+170%)
Will Nico Paz win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 20 $37 +$24 +66%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $85 +$3 +4%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 20 $4 +$5 +102%
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? Jun 20 $11 −$8 -70%
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 +9%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? Jun 19 $2 +$4 +158%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 18 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 18 $54 +$11 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $52 +$3 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $96 +$15 +15%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $11 +$2 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $68 +$42 +63%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 17 $11 −$4 -35%
Will Vance shake hands with an Iranian official by June 20? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $84 +$19 +22%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $80 +$7 +9%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $9 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 16 $21 +$8 +40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $26 +$1 +2%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $254 +$30 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $151 +$5 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $11 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +14%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 $0 -6%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $3 −$3 -89%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $38 −$1 -3%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $4 +$5 +120%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +993%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 −$1 -19%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $14 +$5 +36%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$4 -30%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $18 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +17%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $12 −$2 -15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $1 38m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $5 40m
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $7 42m
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $11 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 10¢ $10 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $77 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $55 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $75 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $30 1h
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $9 6h
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 0¢ $0 16h
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 0¢ $0 17h
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 2¢ $0 18h
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 2¢ $0 24h
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? BUY No 2¢ $0 24h
Will Trump publicly praise Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday? SELL Yes 98¢ $7 24h
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 24h
Congress approves Iran deal in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 26h
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $8 37h
Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 44h
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $6 45h
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $4 45h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL Yes 75¢ $73 45h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 65¢ $65 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 53¢ $54 46h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 74¢ $74 46h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $55 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $15 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $39 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.87 · official $19.87 (match) · 2770 history records