Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:08:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bd5…37b3 other 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 634d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$28 (+0%) realized +$32 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate22%26W / 91L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$42
sports 34% −$3
politics 7% −$1
world 6% −$2
crypto 2% −$15
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 117 -3.4% -12.6% 22% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -9.3%
10% -21.0% 3% -17.9%
15% -28.6% 3% -25.9%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

634d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses26 / 91
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage634d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $461 $457 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $935 −$3 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $181 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $390 +$1 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $118 $0 +0%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 20 $132 −$3 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 20 $274 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotte Mar 20 $120 +$9 +8%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 20 $122 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 21 $121 +$2 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 27 $27 −$8 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $23 +$25 +106%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 16 $145 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Dec 11 $130 +$15 +12%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 22 $131 −$1 -1%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Oct 09 $247 +$13 +5%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 07 $102 $0 +0%
Will United Natural Foods (UNFI) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 07 $1 $0 +12%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -1%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 -0%
Will Celtic win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Fenerbahce win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11? Aug 10 $101 +$1 +1%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 02 $20 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 2–9? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 2–9? May 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2m
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $468 13m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 14m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 14m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $50 14m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 15m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $410 16m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $464 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $77 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $24 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $40 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $195 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $471 1h
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $64 86d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 86d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 11¢ $39 86d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 86d
US forces enter Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.90 · official $456.90 (match) · 420 history records