Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:58:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bd4…e3fa other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate40%18W / 27L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$3
world 34% +$2
finance 9% +$1
politics 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -5.0% -14.0% 12% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 -5.4% -14.4% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 17 -5.7% -14.7% 24% 6% -9.0%
all 45 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 7% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 7% -8.8%
10% -19.4% 2% -17.6%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.5%
20% -34.3% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses18 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage467d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 81¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -31%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $140 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $20 −$2 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $89 +$1 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $46 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $3 −$1 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $7 −$1 -16%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $35 +$10 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $9 −$4 -46%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $2 $0 -6%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk buy TikTok before July? Dec 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 23 $2 $0 +22%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Apr 30 $2 $0 -10%
Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted by the Raiders? Apr 22 $13 +$2 +16%
Will Solana reach $190 in April? Apr 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? Apr 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 16 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Apr 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in March? Apr 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 30 $15 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Mar 25 $15 $0 +0%
OX.FUN insolvent before April? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be 48.5% or moreon March 28? Mar 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 23 $14 $0 +3%
Canada wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 17 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? Mar 15 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $42 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $50 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $1 15h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 9¢ $1 15h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 13¢ $2 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 41h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $15 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $17 47h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $48 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $21 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $25 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $37 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $9 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $16 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $47 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $40 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $37 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $26 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $25 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.96 · official $8.05 (match) · 148 history records