Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9B 0x9bd3…74d4 sports 152 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$9,270 (-22%) realized −$9,329 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%47W / 93L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$929
14 days+$575
30 days+$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$6,856
other 28% −$810
world 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +5.2% -4.8% 38% 38% +5.7%
≤30d 38 -0.9% -10.4% 37% 34% -7.1%
≤90d 45 -4.8% -13.8% 36% 33% -17.1%
all 140 -17.3% -25.2% 34% 32% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.2% 32% -28.1%
10% -32.3% 31% -35.0%
15% -38.9% 31% -41.3%
20% -44.9% 30% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -27% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$316 vs −$244 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$334
Realized−$9,329
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses47 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions2
Markets (closed)140 / 152
History coverage235d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 46¢ 60¢ $200 $263 +$63 (+32%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $75 $71 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $200 +$583 +291%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $147 −$145 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $396 −$77 -19%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $306 −$12 -4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $161 +$153 +95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$178 +88%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $70 −$69 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $136 −$134 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $174 −$53 -31%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $140 −$97 -69%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win Jun 13 $449 +$989 +220%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $150 −$147 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $49 +$101 +206%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 12 $82 −$43 -52%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $406 −$400 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $507 +$794 +156%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $551 −$240 -44%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $102 +$78 +76%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $51 +$86 +170%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $101 +$165 +163%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $84 −$82 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $78 +$105 +134%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $85 +$93 +109%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $133 +$153 +115%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $331 +$8 +2%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $69 −$68 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $301 −$295 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) May 30 $503 −$495 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $661 −$651 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $399 +$763 +191%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $389 −$383 -98%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $680 −$666 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 06 $449 +$417 +93%
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorer May 05 $199 +$453 +228%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $400 −$392 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $149 −$147 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 15 $350 −$343 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $408 −$408 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-12? Mar 12 $289 +$36 +12%
Will Panathinaikós AO vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Mar 12 $200 +$83 +41%
Will Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Mar 12 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $203 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $204 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY 25¢ $82 3h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) BUY 25¢ $200 10h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $45 13h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 34¢ $102 13h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 19¢ $51 14h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 30¢ $102 15h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $294 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $294 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $206 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $101 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $102 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $102 33h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY 31¢ $102 37h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $51 38h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 35¢ $51 38h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 40¢ $102 38h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY 29¢ $204 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $315 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium BUY 8¢ $21 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $220 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $161 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 95¢ $161 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $51 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 21¢ $194 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $334.15 · official $534.15 · 302 history records