Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bd2…f868 sports 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14,263 (-18%) realized −$14,173 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate67%40W / 20L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,213per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$588est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$4,469now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$18,561
14 days−$16,045
30 days−$14,698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$14,470
other 5% −$275
tech 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +22.1% +10.5% 83% 80% -42.8%
≤30d 60 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 63% -26.9%
≤90d 60 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 63% -26.9%
all 60 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 63% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 63% -26.9%
10% -17.5% 62% -33.9%
15% -25.5% 40% -40.3%
20% -32.8% 27% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$707) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$336 vs −$1,407 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$4,469
Realized−$14,173
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses40 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$588
Open positions7
Markets (closed)60 / 67
History coverage20d
Avg bet$1,213
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $2,579 $2,673 +$94 (+4%)
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $600 $505 −$95 (-16%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $480 $450 −$30 (-6%)
ITF Gyula: Nico Hipfl vs Pietro Fellin Pietro Fellin 71¢ 100¢ $291 $410 +$119 (+41%)
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Ghibaudo Walton 71¢ 68¢ $256 $247 −$9 (-3%)
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 82¢ 41¢ $205 $102 −$102 (-50%)
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 50¢ 28¢ $150 $82 −$68 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 21 $111 +$49 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $204 +$116 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $121 +$36 +29%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Jun 20 $805 +$195 +24%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $407 −$403 -99%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $240 +$70 +29%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,260 −$1,260 -100%
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 19 $406 +$214 +53%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $507 +$233 +46%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $804 +$196 +24%
Set 1 Winner: Jacquet vs Searle Jun 19 $3 +$2 +79%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti Jun 19 $580 +$520 +90%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 18 $504 +$146 +29%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp Jun 18 $4 +$1 +42%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $393 +$107 +27%
Set Handicap: Baena (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5) Jun 18 $369 +$101 +27%
Ribecai vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $303 +$114 +38%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $602 −$602 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $302 +$138 +46%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $305 +$445 +146%
Set 1 Winner: Tien vs Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $152 +$107 +71%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $475 +$130 +27%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $453 +$147 +32%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $304 +$146 +48%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 16 $9,519 −$9,519 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $201 +$65 +32%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $15,992 −$12,969 -81%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $8,322 +$772 +9%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $244 +$156 +64%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Himeno Sakatsume vs Alicia Dudeney Jun 14 $6,553 +$1,986 +30%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $313 −$313 -100%
Set Handicap: Mannarino (-1.5) vs Zhang (+1.5) Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Jun 12 $148 −$148 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $186 −$186 -100%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) Jun 12 $671 −$671 -100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $4,160 +$1,440 +35%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Lucrezia Stefanini Jun 12 $4,810 +$334 +7%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $204 +$106 +52%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $150 +$81 +54%
Bratislava: Maxim Mrva vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 11 $57 −$57 -100%
Modena: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Mayar Sherif Jun 11 $186 −$186 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $3,555 +$1,550 +44%
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Shimabukuro (+1.5) Jun 11 $191 +$109 +57%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 11 $106 −$106 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $143 −$143 -100%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 11 $405 −$405 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 11 $707 −$707 -100%
Modena: Laura Samson vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 10 $76 +$24 +32%
Ilkley: Felix Gill vs Filippo Romano Jun 10 $55 +$45 +82%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $4,114 +$501 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Ghibaudo BUY Walton 71¢ $258 27m
Cerundolo vs. Paul: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 82¢ $206 1h
ITF Gyula: Nico Hipfl vs Pietro Fellin BUY Pietro Fellin 71¢ $293 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $204 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 69¢ $97 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 68¢ $3 14h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 67¢ $10 14h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Emilio Nava 66¢ $407 21h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton BUY Peyton Stearns 80¢ $805 22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 77¢ $93 35h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 76¢ $28 35h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $240 35h
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 65¢ $394 40h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $5 41h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $30 41h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $34 41h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $2 41h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $436 41h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 80¢ $82 45h
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen BUY Otto Virtanen 80¢ $722 45h
Set 1 Winner: Jacquet vs Searle BUY Jacquet 55¢ $3 2d
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Lucio Ratti BUY Cosme de Ravel 52¢ $580 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $581 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 77¢ $543 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 76¢ $135 2d
Set Handicap: Auger-Aliassime (-1.5) vs Tiafoe (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 60¢ $12 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Botic van de Zandschulp BUY Tommy Paul 77¢ $504 2d
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Zandschulp BUY Paul 70¢ $4 2d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ben Shelton 78¢ $393 3d
Set Handicap: Baena (-1.5) vs Ofner (+1.5) BUY Ofner 78¢ $369 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,469.39 · official $4,503.37 (match) · 214 history records