Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9bd2…b613 sports 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,508 (+8%) realized +$1,518 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate86%32W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$441per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$181
14 days+$186
30 days+$1,453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$1,232
other 23% +$212
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -6.3% -15.3% 83% 17% -6.0%
≤30d 37 +1.1% -8.5% 86% 24% -2.2%
≤90d 37 +1.1% -8.5% 86% 24% -2.2%
all 37 +1.1% -8.5% 86% 24% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 24% -2.2%
10% -17.3% 14% -11.6%
15% -25.3% 11% -20.1%
20% -32.6% 3% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$755) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$62 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.7 per $1 lost it wins $5.7
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$1,518
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses32 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage29d
Avg bet$441
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "School" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Yes 90¢ 84¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-6%)
Will "Doctor Banner" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Yes 91¢ 81¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-11%)
Will "MJ" be said 2+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? Yes 89¢ 78¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will "May" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Yes 90¢ 82¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Kid" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $100 +$9 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $339 +$22 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $869 +$65 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 $0 +1%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $93 +$3 +3%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $289 +$5 +2%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $755 +$7 +1%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $785 +$86 +11%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 12 $50 +$15 +29%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group Jun 12 $101 +$47 +46%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $757 +$67 +9%
LoL: Solary vs BOMBA Team (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
LoL: FENNEL vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 10 $104 +$2 +2%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Weibo Gaming Youth Team (BO3) - Asia Jun 09 $95 +$5 +5%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 31 $325 +$65 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $123 +$70 +57%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $2,233 +$214 +10%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $2,097 +$275 +13%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $578 −$140 -24%
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $2,311 +$205 +9%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1,255 +$119 +10%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs MVK Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs May 29 $418 +$83 +20%
Citrea FDV above $20M one day after launch? May 28 $616 +$1 +0%
Citrea FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $712 +$53 +7%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $971 +$60 +6%
Will The Deep die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $203 +$75 +37%
Will Billy Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $304 +$122 +40%
Will Soldier Boy die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $101 +$4 +4%
Will Homelander die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $973 +$76 +8%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 19 $21 −$14 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "School" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 91¢ $50 1h
Will "School" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 1h
Will "Doctor Banner" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 91¢ $26 1h
Will "MJ" be said 2+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 1h
Will "Kid" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will "Kid" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 17h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 93¢ $50 33h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 90¢ $50 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 33h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $56 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $132 42h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $120 42h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 99¢ $11 44h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $165 44h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $21 44h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 93¢ $29 44h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 90¢ $96 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 97¢ $93 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $295 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 98¢ $289 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $16 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $31 2d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 94¢ $410 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY KT Rolster Challengers 89¢ $15 2d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 99¢ $755 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $15 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $46 3d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY KT Rolster Challengers 92¢ $55 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 88¢ $514 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $70 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.43 · official $104.43 (match) · 138 history records