trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 97¢ | 99¢ | $250,029 | $256,957 | +$6,928 (+3%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | No | 50¢ | 66¢ | $60,017 | $79,283 | +$19,266 (+32%) |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 50¢ | 34¢ | $60,017 | $40,752 | −$19,266 (-32%) |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 72¢ | 77¢ | $14,343 | $15,390 | +$1,047 (+7%) |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Yes | 38¢ | 23¢ | $15,058 | $9,120 | −$5,938 (-39%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | No | 76¢ | 68¢ | $7,622 | $6,800 | −$822 (-11%) |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 22¢ | 18¢ | $5,155 | $4,335 | −$820 (-16%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 11 | $9,250 | +$750 | +8% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $12,910 | +$1,940 | +15% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 29 | $306,818 | +$31,810 | +10% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | Apr 01 | $207 | −$126 | -61% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +8.1% | -2.2% | 100% | 0% | -2.2% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +11.6% | +0.9% | 100% | 50% | +1.5% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -6.9% | -15.8% | 75% | 25% | -0.1% |
| all | 4 | -6.9% | -15.8% | 75% | 25% | -0.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -15.8% | 25% | -0.1% |
| 10% | -23.8% | 0% | -9.6% |
| 15% ← realistic here | -31.2% | 0% | -18.4% |
| 20% | -37.9% | 0% | -26.4% |