Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:03:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

9B
0x9bc9…9791
other · 127 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$6 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Net worth$25
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses115 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)121 / 127
History coverage612d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%
Chart Positions 6 History 121 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Over 83¢ 84¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? No 84¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 86¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn Jun 11 $3 $0 +7%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 29 $1 $0 +49%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 29 $4 $0 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 +6%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Apr 02 $9 $0 +3%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 01 $3 $0 +5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 10 $2 $0 +2%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 10 $3 $0 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 Mar 10 $3 $0 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 27 $3 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State Feb 25 $2 $0 +3%
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Feb 25 $4 $0 +8%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Feb 23 $2 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff Feb 23 $3 $0 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 22 $3 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Feb 21 $3 $0 +4%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 20 $3 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Feb 15 $2 $0 +6%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026? Feb 15 $1 $0 +1%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 14 $2 $0 +6%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $5 $0 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Feb 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Feb 13 $1 $0 +17%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 13 $9 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Feb 11 $13 $0 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 10 $13 $0 +3%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $4 +$1 +20%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Feb 09 $7 $0 +5%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 04 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 04 $3 +$1 +42%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 31 $3 $0 +4%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $5 +$1 +12%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Dec 03 $16 +$1 +5%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 12 $2 $0 +4%
Will Powell say "Median" during September press conference? Sep 18 $2 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $3 $0 +12%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 27 $2 $0 +7%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? May 27 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 27 $1 $0 +33%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? May 27 $2 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 36% +$5
world 15% +$2
economics 13% +$3
politics 13% +$6
crypto 8% −$3
sports 7% +$3
culture 6% −$23
weather 3% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $6 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $3 1h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $2 2d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 86¢ $1 15d
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 15d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 42d
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn BUY No 93¢ $3 71d
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $4 71d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 72d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $4 72d
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? BUY Yes 97¢ $9 73d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 20 BUY No 93¢ $3 106d
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 108d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $3 108d
Will Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State BUY Yes 97¢ $2 109d
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY No 92¢ $4 110d
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 110d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs PARIVISION (BO5) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoff BUY Vitality 96¢ $3 111d
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 112d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 BUY No 96¢ $3 113d
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly BUY No 98¢ $2 118d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St SELL Aurora Gaming 72¢ $2 118d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St BUY Aurora Gaming 68¢ $2 118d
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $3 118d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $6 119d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 119d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $3 119d
Government shutdown on Saturday? BUY No 98¢ $4 119d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY No 98¢ $7 120d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.6% -0.8% 100% 33% -2.4%
≤30d 6 +15.1% +4.2% 100% 33% -1.0%
≤90d 13 -23.0% -30.4% 69% 15% -46.6%
all 121 +0.9% -8.7% 95% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 11% -10.4%
10% -17.5% 3% -19.0%
15% -25.4% 2% -26.8%
20% -32.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.15 · official $25.15 (match) · 257 history records