Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:11:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bc5…908a sports 600 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$969 (-1%) realized −$944 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%313W / 283L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$127est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$200
7 days−$149
14 days−$91
30 days−$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$864
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -6.3% -15.2% 53% 47% -21.8%
≤30d 69 -8.6% -17.3% 49% 48% -11.6%
≤90d 129 -16.0% -24.0% 43% 43% -19.7%
all 596 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 51% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 51% -10.2%
10% -21.0% 46% -18.8%
15% -28.6% 37% -26.7%
20% -35.6% 26% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$76 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$167
Realized−$944
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses313 / 283
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$127
Open positions4
Markets (closed)596 / 600
History coverage151d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 59¢ 71¢ $65 $78 +$13 (+20%)
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Sebastian Ofner 54¢ 57¢ $54 $57 +$3 (+6%)
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Elina Svitolina 70¢ 30¢ $49 $21 −$28 (-56%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 30¢ 13¢ $24 $10 −$14 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 220 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $93 +$127 +135%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $107 +$73 +69%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $55 +$45 +83%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) Jun 16 $50 +$60 +118%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $92 +$8 +8%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $8 +$1 +13%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $76 +$103 +136%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 16 $34 +$14 +42%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $159 −$156 -98%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $58 −$57 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $57 −$56 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $59 −$58 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $170 −$168 -99%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $53 +$37 +70%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $118 −$53 -45%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $48 +$52 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $237 −$234 -99%
Tucuman: Federico Coria vs Andrea Collarini Jun 11 $71 −$70 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Shimabukuro vs Kyrgios Jun 11 $61 +$39 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $72 +$28 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $213 +$87 +41%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 10 $67 −$66 -99%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $35 −$34 -98%
Libema Open: Lois Boisson vs Solana Sierra Jun 10 $258 +$100 +39%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $75 +$45 +60%
Bratislava: Vitaliy Sachko vs Thanasi Kokkinakis Jun 10 $67 −$66 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $133 +$157 +118%
Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 09 $82 +$38 +47%
Stuttgart Open: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs James Duckworth Jun 09 $143 +$57 +40%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $68 +$32 +48%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $51 +$39 +76%
Birmingham: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 08 $51 +$39 +76%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $97 −$33 -34%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $21 −$21 -98%
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Luka Mikrut Jun 06 $47 −$46 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $26 −$14 -52%
Prostejov: Hynek Barton vs Norbert Gombos Jun 04 $100 +$30 +31%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $99 +$71 +72%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $113 −$112 -99%
Birmingham: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Elvina Kalieva Jun 03 $119 −$118 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $257 +$143 +56%
Prostejov: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Hynek Barton Jun 02 $53 −$52 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $21 −$21 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $35 −$34 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 01 $108 −$22 -20%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 01 $53 +$147 +276%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 54¢ $15 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 25¢ $26 1h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 58¢ $23 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 45¢ $9 1h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 60¢ $43 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 54¢ $3 1h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 30¢ $25 1h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner BUY Sebastian Ofner 54¢ $37 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 58¢ $59 2h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 70¢ $49 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 45¢ $46 6h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 65¢ $33 6h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $74 9h
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Raphael Collignon 54¢ $55 29h
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) SELL Lehecka 100¢ $110 2d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 92¢ $92 2d
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 88¢ $8 2d
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Majchrzak (+1.5) BUY Lehecka 45¢ $50 3d
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 41¢ $17 3d
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 39¢ $20 3d
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 39¢ $4 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 99¢ $179 3d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios SELL Nick Kyrgios 49¢ $48 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 51¢ $57 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 26¢ $19 3d
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 24¢ $0 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 8¢ $8 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 9¢ $9 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 31¢ $32 5d
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 57¢ $58 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.35 · official $165.50 · 1828 history records