Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bc1…0132 world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate39%14W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$16
other 33% −$20
politics 9% +$1
finance 3% +$2
sports 0% +$8
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 +1.3% -8.4% 42% 8% -8.0%
≤90d 30 -5.6% -14.6% 40% 7% -8.9%
all 36 -10.8% -19.3% 39% 8% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.3% 8% -9.3%
10% -27.0% 6% -18.0%
15% -34.1% 3% -25.9%
20% -40.6% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses14 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage523d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $59 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $59 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $86 +$4 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $37 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $51 −$3 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $57 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $7 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $69 +$17 +25%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $43 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $69 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $60 +$1 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $68 −$4 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $4 $0 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $14 +$3 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $42 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 21 $36 +$2 +6%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $490 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $499 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $221 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $221 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on July 31? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Vincent Keymer win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhau Mar 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Benfica win on 2025-02-12? Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 06 $12 $0 +4%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? Jan 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Vikings and Rams combine for 48 or more points? Jan 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Thunder vs. Cavaliers Jan 09 $10 +$8 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $5 1h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $54 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $2 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $49 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $49 21h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 33h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 39h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 39h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $26 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 75¢ $11 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $19 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $12 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $32 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $48 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $53 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.67 · official $59.67 (match) · 133 history records