Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9B 0x9bc1…0dbe crypto 407 markets active 2d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-4%) realized −$31 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%180W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$66
14 days−$33
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$38
world 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -29.8% -36.5% 24% 24% -38.1%
≤30d 329 +1.6% -8.1% 42% 41% -14.4%
≤90d 406 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 43% -13.7%
all 406 +1.2% -8.4% 44% 43% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 43% -13.7%
10% -17.2% 43% -21.9%
15% -25.2% 42% -29.5%
20% -32.5% 40% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses180 / 226
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)406 / 407
History coverage42d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 13¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$7 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$7 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$8 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$4 +270%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 664 history records