Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:10:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
9B 0x9bc0…a308 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$83 (+48%) realized +$82 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$4
other 33% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +47.9% +33.8% 78% 78% +55.3%
≤30d 9 +47.9% +33.8% 78% 78% +55.3%
≤90d 9 +47.9% +33.8% 78% 78% +55.3%
all 9 +47.9% +33.8% 78% 78% +55.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.8% 78% +55.3%
10% +21.0% 44% +40.5%
15% +9.3% 33% +26.9%
20% -1.4% 33% +14.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +72% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$5 · ×2.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.28 per $1 lost it wins $10.28
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 17
History coverage3d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Canada 98¢ 100¢ $31 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +211%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $56 +$80 +144%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $9 $0 -3%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $21 +$3 +14%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $4 +$4 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 +$1 +13%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $3 +$1 +18%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 98¢ $31 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Spread: Czechia (-1. BUY 16¢ $6 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Bosn BUY 8¢ $1 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Bosn BUY 5¢ $1 9h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both BUY 5¢ $1 10h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Scor BUY 3¢ $1 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2 BUY 54¢ $1 25h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 31¢ $1 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $18 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $9 25h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 25h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $9 29h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 2¢ $0 29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 33h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 33h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $2 33h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $9 33h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $9 34h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 87¢ $21 34h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $12 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $6 3d
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Egypt 84¢ $3 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.64 · official $44.64 · 29 history records