Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9bbf…49c1 sports 669 markets active 0h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$252 (+5%) realized +$273 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%331W / 301L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day42.5pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$797now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$302
7 days+$302
14 days+$302
30 days+$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$167
crypto 18% +$105
other 7% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 631 +12.8% +2.0% 52% 44% -4.1%
≤30d 631 +12.8% +2.0% 52% 44% -4.1%
≤90d 632 +12.6% +1.9% 52% 44% -4.2%
all 632 +12.6% +1.9% 52% 44% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.9% 44% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -7.9% 36% -13.4%
15% -16.8% 30% -21.7%
20% -24.9% 26% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$797
Realized+$273
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses331 / 301
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions37
Markets (closed)632 / 669
History coverage34d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 632 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? No 93¢ 100¢ $110 $118 +$8 (+7%)
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Japan 77¢ 100¢ $56 $72 +$16 (+29%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 100¢ $58 $60 +$2 (+4%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score No 95¢ 100¢ $51 $53 +$2 (+5%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 72¢ 100¢ $37 $51 +$15 (+40%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 66¢ 100¢ $24 $37 +$13 (+52%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 100¢ $11 $36 +$24 (+220%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 99¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 93¢ 100¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+7%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 43¢ 100¢ $11 $25 +$14 (+132%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Over 64¢ 100¢ $16 $25 +$9 (+56%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Grind Back 80¢ 100¢ $20 $25 +$5 (+25%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 74¢ 100¢ $18 $25 +$6 (+35%)
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Mentality Monster 53¢ 100¢ $13 $25 +$12 (+89%)
Tunisia leading at halftime? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 28¢ 100¢ $7 $25 +$18 (+257%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 31¢ 100¢ $8 $25 +$17 (+222%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Under 59¢ 100¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+69%)
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Mentality Monster 72¢ 92¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+28%)
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh Matthew Dellavedova 71¢ 92¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+30%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 87¢ 100¢ $20 $22 +$3 (+15%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 5.5 Corners Over 35¢ 50¢ $9 $12 +$4 (+41%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners Under 53¢ 1¢ $39 $1 −$38 (-97%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 8¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Over 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 242 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 21 $16 +$9 +54%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $12 +$13 +104%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $21 +$4 +19%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $40 +$10 +26%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $24 +$1 +2%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 21 $18 +$7 +39%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 21 $23 +$2 +10%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $11 +$14 +122%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $22 +$3 +12%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 21 $22 +$2 +11%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 21 $30 +$4 +15%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Haruka Kaji Jun 21 $40 +$5 +12%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Indios de Mayaguez vs. Aguada Santeros Jun 21 $14 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $23 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $49 −$48 -98%
ITF Sapporo: Ayumi Miyamoto vs Aishi Das Jun 21 $21 +$4 +21%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $19 +$31 +160%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 21 $11 +$14 +127%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $45 +$28 +61%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $11 +$13 +117%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5) Jun 21 $19 +$6 +30%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 21 $25 $0 +0%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-8.5) Jun 21 $9 +$8 +82%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) Jun 21 $3 +$2 +72%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $24 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 21 $12 +$28 +237%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 171.5 Jun 21 $13 +$12 +92%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 21 $21 +$4 +18%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5) Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 99¢ $36 10m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 88¢ $15 17m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 2¢ $1 18m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 28¢ $7 22m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 99¢ $2 22m
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh BUY Matthew Dellavedova 71¢ $6 26m
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh BUY Matthew Dellavedova 71¢ $9 27m
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Hoyoung Roh BUY Matthew Dellavedova 71¢ $4 27m
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $6 31m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 79¢ $6 31m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 22¢ $6 31m
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 32m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 5¢ $1 32m
Tunisia vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 49¢ $2 32m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 80¢ $32 37m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 79¢ $12 37m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 79¢ $2 37m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 52¢ $13 37m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Tunisia 62¢ $3 43m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $11 43m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 52¢ $13 47m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $1 48m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $1 48m
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $9 48m
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 61¢ $19 48m
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 98¢ $8 48m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 48m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 50m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $1 50m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $2 50m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $796.82 · official $796.82 (match) · 1835 history records