Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bbe…9687 world 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-1%) realized −$64 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate30%27W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$22
politics 23% −$26
other 16% −$6
sports 11% $0
economics 6% $0
crypto 4% +$4
finance 1% −$2
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 29% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 26 +1.2% -8.4% 38% 4% -10.2%
≤90d 72 -0.9% -10.4% 32% 1% -10.2%
all 89 -0.9% -10.3% 30% 1% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -10.1%
10% -18.9% 1% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$64
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses27 / 62
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage274d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 92¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $99 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $99 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $110 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $100 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $150 +$3 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $121 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $165 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $58 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $209 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $63 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $119 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $16 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $133 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $248 +$3 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $105 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $108 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $141 +$3 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 29 $82 +$3 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $112 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $8 −$2 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $102 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $239 −$44 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $130 +$12 +9%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 21 $47 −$2 -4%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 20 $5 −$1 -25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $285 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $162 −$1 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $135 −$1 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 24 $416 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $166 +$1 +1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $144 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $40 −$3 -7%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $412 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $275 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $138 −$1 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $182 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $181 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $138 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 10 $12 $0 +1%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $138 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $44 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $128 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $99 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $99 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $99 34h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $99 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $99 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $110 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $110 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $99 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $53 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 71¢ $46 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $17 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $98 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $36 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $90 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $124 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $112 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $102 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $4 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $9 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $121 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $121 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $121 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $121 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.70 · official $98.17 · 365 history records