Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
9B 0x9bb7…fbfa sports 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$13,689 (-21%) realized −$13,706 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate66%76W / 39L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$552per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$467est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$10,263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,629
7 days−$14,202
14 days−$14,179
30 days−$14,183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$14,136
other 18% +$30
crypto 1% −$53
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -24.3% -31.5% 54% 13% -34.3%
≤30d 98 -7.1% -15.9% 65% 28% -34.1%
≤90d 115 -5.1% -14.2% 66% 30% -34.0%
all 115 -5.1% -14.2% 66% 30% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 30% -34.0%
10% -22.4% 22% -40.4%
15% -29.9% 17% -46.1%
20% -36.8% 13% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$397 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$10,263
Realized−$13,706
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses76 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$467
Open positions2
Markets (closed)115 / 117
History coverage56d
Avg bet$552
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5,210 $5,290 +$81 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5,036 $4,972 −$64 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $40 −$14 -34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $81 −$45 -55%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5,041 −$3,766 -75%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,056 +$221 +21%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,003 +$19 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,855 −$25 -1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $1,019 −$985 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,000 +$6 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$7 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $10,881 +$147 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,938 −$903 -47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,003 +$113 +11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,100 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $7,010 −$4,097 -58%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $102 −$67 -65%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,001 +$44 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5,003 +$94 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $5,004 +$145 +3%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,089 −$5,000 -98%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +85%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 12 $2 $0 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $24 +$6 +25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $9 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $12 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $7 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 08 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 46m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 35¢ $5 53m
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 61¢ $27 54m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 17¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 89¢ $40 2h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 3¢ $0 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $40 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 34¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $51 18h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $773 19h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3,362 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,262.98 · official $10,262.98 (match) · 518 history records