Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bb5…0f28 crypto 23 markets active 2d ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$30 (-10%) realized −$6 · open −$24
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -24.9% -32.1% 50% 36% -18.8%
≤30d 17 -20.8% -28.4% 41% 29% -18.3%
≤90d 17 -20.8% -28.4% 41% 29% -18.3%
all 17 -20.8% -28.4% 41% 29% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.4% 29% -18.3%
10% -35.2% 12% -26.1%
15% -41.5% 12% -33.2%
20% -47.2% 0% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)17 / 23
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? No 82¢ 100¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+21%)
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? No 88¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? No 90¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Yes 93¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Yes 22¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? No $15 $0 −$15 (-97%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Yes 27¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $21 −$6 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 16 $16 −$10 -64%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 15 $15 −$5 -32%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 14? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 15 $16 −$9 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $21 −$7 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 13 $21 +$8 +37%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $26 +$11 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 12 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 16? Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 11? Jun 10 $5 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 81¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 88¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 76¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 83¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 70¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 90¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 93¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 10¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 16? SELL No 96¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.70 · official $74.70 (match) · 77 history records