Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bb5…4bc1 politics 95 markets active 2h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-0%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%3W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$12
sports 24% −$6
other 23% −$4
crypto 5% $0
economics 5% −$1
culture 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 95 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses3 / 92
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage199d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $262 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 21 $262 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 17 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $263 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $263 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 12 $262 +$1 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 10 $262 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $264 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $264 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 12 $264 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $264 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 08 $265 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 06 $265 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $530 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 29 $265 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $265 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $265 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $266 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $267 −$2 -1%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $268 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 21 $222 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $268 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 18 $268 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $268 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 15 $268 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 11 $268 $0 +0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 10 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 08 $270 −$2 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 06 $270 $0 +0%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 05 $265 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 05 $262 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $260 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $262 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $260 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 28 $266 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 28 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $263 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $259 $0 -0%
Will the Nashville Predators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 25 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $264 $0 -0%
Will Alaves win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 24 $265 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 07 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $268 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 05 $261 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 02 $265 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $262 1h
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $262 14h
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $262 18d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $262 20d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $262 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $262 30d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $262 33d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $262 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $262 34d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $263 35d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $263 37d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $51 37d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $193 37d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $19 37d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $262 39d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? SELL No 100¢ $262 40d
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? BUY No 100¢ $262 40d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $263 63d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $264 63d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $264 64d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $264 64d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $264 66d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $199 66d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 66d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 66d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 66d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? SELL No 100¢ $264 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $264 69d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 70d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 258 history records