Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:57:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bb4…a467 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$40 (-11%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -21.7% -29.1% 40% 40% -22.0%
≤30d 10 -21.7% -29.1% 40% 40% -22.0%
≤90d 10 -21.7% -29.1% 40% 40% -22.0%
all 10 -21.7% -29.1% 40% 40% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 40% -22.0%
10% -35.9% 40% -29.5%
15% -42.1% 40% -36.3%
20% -47.8% 40% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$26 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage3d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 44¢ 44¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $42 −$10 -25%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $27 +$21 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 18 $64 +$53 +83%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $35 +$31 +90%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $13 +$8 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $31 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL Atlanta Braves 45¢ $32 5h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $20 25h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $27 28h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 58¢ $42 29h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $64 29h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 48¢ $30 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 62¢ $13 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 57¢ $58 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $25 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 52¢ $35 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.21 · official $30.21 (match) · 21 history records