Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:38:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
9B 0x9bb2…46f5 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 306d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$102 (+7%) realized +$92 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$85
14 days+$85
30 days+$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$110
world 33% +$5
politics 14% −$6
crypto 8% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +42.0% +28.5% 100% 100% +28.5%
≤30d 2 +42.0% +28.5% 100% 100% +28.5%
≤90d 3 +33.4% +20.7% 100% 100% +20.8%
all 14 +3.2% -6.6% 64% 43% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 43% -2.1%
10% -15.6% 21% -11.5%
15% -23.7% 14% -20.0%
20% -31.2% 14% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$20 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.99 per $1 lost it wins $1.99
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

306d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$92
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage306d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 100¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? Apr 01 $98 +$16 +16%
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? Jan 06 $185 −$87 -47%
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by November 7, 2025? Oct 30 $189 −$4 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 Oct 30 $178 +$11 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Oct 29 $110 +$68 +62%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31? Oct 26 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30? Oct 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31? Sep 06 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? Sep 03 $10 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Sep 03 $50 +$13 +25%
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi Aug 26 $10 −$2 -21%
Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by August 31? Aug 21 $40 +$4 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $97 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $120 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 4d
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28? BUY Yes 86¢ $98 165d
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $98 165d
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by January 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $185 181d
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by November 7, 2025? SELL Yes 92¢ $185 233d
Will either Cuomo or Mamdani concede by November 7, 2025? BUY Yes 94¢ $189 233d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 SELL No 98¢ $189 233d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 24 to October 31, 2025 BUY No 93¢ $178 234d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $178 235d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $84 238d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31? SELL No 92¢ $84 238d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 269d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31? SELL No 87¢ $26 269d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by December 31? BUY No 90¢ $109 284d
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31? SELL Yes 41¢ $17 288d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 291d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL No 79¢ $63 291d
Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 295d
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi SELL Yes 15¢ $8 299d
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service by October 31? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 300d
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 303d
Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by August 31? SELL No 82¢ $44 304d
Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by August 31? BUY No 75¢ $40 305d
Will FrP win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary electi BUY Yes 19¢ $10 305d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? BUY No 63¢ $50 306d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.36 · official $206.37 (match) · 32 history records