Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T03:20:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bb2…21cb weather 513 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$374 (+1%) realized +$374 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate92%469W / 42L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$18
14 days+$27
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$357
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.6% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 80 -0.7% -10.2% 99% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 386 +0.6% -9.0% 96% 2% -8.9%
all 511 -0.1% -9.6% 92% 5% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -8.8%
10% -18.3% 2% -17.5%
15% -26.2% 1% -25.5%
20% -33.4% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$374
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses469 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)511 / 513
History coverage110d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 511 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 30? Jun 30 $692 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 30? Jun 30 $693 +$7 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $698 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $698 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $65 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? Jun 22 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $224 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? Jun 21 $299 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $789 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $599 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on June 18? Jun 18 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $379 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $129 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 21°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $58 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $288 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Jun 15 $616 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 37°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $251 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on June 14 Jun 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 104°F or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $369 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 104-105°F on Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 106°F or higher on Ju Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $259 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 90°F or higher on Jun Jun 11 $101 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on June Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 90-91°F on June Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 92-93°F on June Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 10? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 9? Jun 09 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $458 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C or higher on June 8? Jun 08 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 8? Jun 08 $209 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $60 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $699 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 30? SELL No 100¢ $699 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $20 46h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $692 46h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C or below on June 30? BUY No 99¢ $693 46h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 30 BUY No 99¢ $5 47h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $698 5d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $698 5d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $224 9d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $26 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $65 9d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $40 9d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $56 9d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $299 9d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $789 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or below on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $599 11d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $379 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $100 13d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $299 13d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 96¢ $51 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 95¢ $6 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 15? SELL No 97¢ $1 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $164 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $27 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $7 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 99¢ $20 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $72 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $198 14d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $90 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.61 · official $24.61 (match) · 1592 history records