Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
9B 0x9bae…0a3f sports 70 markets active 3h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,088 (-11%) realized −$1,088 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate34%24W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,176
7 days+$1,482
14 days−$466
30 days−$1,154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -18.7% -26.5% 44% 40% +19.0%
≤30d 70 -21.2% -28.7% 34% 31% -20.1%
≤90d 70 -21.2% -28.7% 34% 31% -20.1%
all 70 -21.2% -28.7% 34% 31% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 31% -20.1%
10% -35.5% 31% -27.7%
15% -41.7% 29% -34.7%
20% -47.4% 26% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$112 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,088
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses24 / 46
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage23d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (42 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $894 +$725 +81%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $353 +$90 +26%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $357 +$390 +109%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson Jun 24 $222 +$358 +161%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $306 +$363 +119%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 24 $356 +$260 +73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $11 −$11 -97%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $357 +$178 +50%
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings Jun 21 $356 −$352 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $22 −$22 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $64 −$63 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $47 +$4 +9%
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 20 $48 −$47 -98%
Noskova vs. Eala: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $2 −$1 -97%
Pliskova vs. Bouzkova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $9 +$13 +152%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $708 −$705 -100%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 Jun 20 $358 +$296 +83%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $146 +$103 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $13 −$12 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) Jun 19 $34 −$33 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Paul vs. Fokina: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Li vs. Golubic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
O'Connell vs. Bonzi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 18 $26 +$39 +152%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 18 $12 −$4 -34%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $22 −$22 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $250 −$246 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $40 −$39 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $362 −$357 -99%
Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -97%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 17 $47 +$182 +388%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $27 +$88 +325%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $17 −$16 -97%
Etcheverry vs. Medvedev: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $254 +$107 +42%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $592 −$583 -98%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 16 $166 −$164 -99%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $241 +$351 +146%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $32 +$50 +156%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $363 +$255 +70%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $53 +$34 +65%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $146 −$144 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $80 −$78 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $23 +$8 +32%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $19 −$19 -97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $363 −$358 -99%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$23 +226%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 53¢ $224 3h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $314 3h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $356 3h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Philadelphia Phillies 79¢ $353 5h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 47¢ $357 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tatiana Prozorova vs Heather Watson BUY Heather Watson 38¢ $222 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Teodora Kostovic 45¢ $306 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Gabriel Diallo 57¢ $356 14h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals $11 28h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 66¢ $357 4d
Chicago Sky vs. Dallas Wings BUY Chicago Sky 66¢ $356 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 46¢ $22 4d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 59¢ $64 4d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 41¢ $51 4d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 36¢ $47 4d
Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream BUY Indiana Fever 49¢ $48 4d
Noskova vs. Eala: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over $2 4d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 86¢ $354 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 85¢ $354 5d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 167.5 BUY Under 54¢ $358 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $146 5d
Pliskova vs. Bouzkova: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 39¢ $9 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 21¢ $13 5d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-3.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 31¢ $34 5d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 35¢ $1 5d
Paul vs. Fokina: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over $2 5d
Li vs. Golubic: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over $2 5d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 14¢ $46 6d
O'Connell vs. Bonzi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over $1 6d
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 39¢ $26 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records