Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
9B 0x9bae…5d34 world 598 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 179d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$12,397 (+3%) realized +$14,887 · open −$2,490
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate73%302W / 111L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$612per market
Trades / day14.9pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$22,458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$6,141
14 days+$5,250
30 days+$7,597
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$8,872
other 30% −$1,895
sports 13% +$13,923
politics 8% +$2,172
economics 5% +$634
tech 2% +$1,750
finance 1% +$271
crypto 0% −$96
culture 0% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +38.3% +25.1% 77% 51% +32.6%
≤30d 74 +7.7% -2.6% 70% 38% +15.7%
≤90d 195 -3.9% -13.0% 68% 40% +3.8%
all 413 -0.2% -9.7% 73% 33% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 33% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 23% -15.7%
15% -26.3% 16% -23.8%
20% -33.5% 11% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$803) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$190 vs −$423 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$22,458
Realized+$14,887
Unrealized−$2,490
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses302 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions198
Markets (closed)413 / 598
History coverage180d ⚠
Avg bet$612
Trades / day14.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 198 History 413 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $1,904 $4,495 +$2,591 (+136%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 35¢ 100¢ $728 $2,069 +$1,340 (+184%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $1,110 $1,806 +$696 (+63%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 61¢ 96¢ $599 $938 +$340 (+57%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 72¢ 76¢ $746 $786 +$40 (+5%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 30¢ $1,160 $771 −$389 (-34%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 78¢ 88¢ $486 $547 +$61 (+13%)
Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next? No 96¢ 100¢ $498 $519 +$21 (+4%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 82¢ 90¢ $451 $497 +$46 (+10%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 90¢ 95¢ $468 $493 +$25 (+5%)
Will Netanyahu be pardoned by June 30? No 86¢ 94¢ $447 $488 +$41 (+9%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 85¢ 88¢ $467 $481 +$14 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 78¢ $330 $314 −$16 (-5%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $259 $300 +$41 (+16%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $333 $273 −$60 (-18%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 70¢ 75¢ $245 $262 +$17 (+7%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 88¢ 100¢ $221 $250 +$29 (+13%)
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 95¢ 100¢ $238 $249 +$11 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 40¢ 98¢ $99 $245 +$146 (+147%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 95¢ 95¢ $238 $237 −$0 (-0%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 73¢ 75¢ $218 $226 +$8 (+3%)
Will Microsoft acquire TikTok? No 84¢ 99¢ $168 $198 +$30 (+18%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $177 $188 +$11 (+6%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 72¢ 52¢ $195 $141 −$54 (-28%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? Yes 74¢ 97¢ $98 $128 +$30 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $9 +$13 +150%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $43 +$12 +29%
Will Pizza Hut be acquired before 2027? Jun 17 $208 +$42 +20%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $242 +$8 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 17 $101 −$1 -1%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $42 +$3 +8%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 16 $38 +$12 +30%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $368 +$40 +11%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 15? Jun 16 $23 +$2 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $136 −$86 -63%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $437 +$646 +148%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $60 −$10 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $1,407 +$1,022 +73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $34 +$16 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1,587 +$1,132 +71%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $175 −$75 -43%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $803 +$77 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $2,346 +$1,212 +52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $520 +$194 +37%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $408 +$204 +50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $37 −$37 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz Jun 14 $66 −$64 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +208%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $7 +$43 +614%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $47 +$9 +19%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $47 +$3 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $1,894 +$1,748 +92%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +5%
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027? Jun 12 $1,241 −$16 -1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$2 +17%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 12 $224 +$8 +4%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $417 +$21 +5%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $93 −$93 -100%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $48 +$2 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $45 +$55 +121%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $558 +$42 +8%
Will Apple announce an AI-charged Siri during the WWDC 2026 keynote? Jun 08 $14 $0 +1%
Will Apple announce all six next-generation operating systems during t Jun 08 $7 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $76 −$76 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $136 +$115 +85%
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5? Jun 06 $99 +$1 +1%
Will USD reach 18,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in May? Jun 05 $911 −$907 -100%
Will the US add between 150k and 200k jobs in May? Jun 05 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $44 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 87¢ $44 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $40 1h
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu BUY No 90¢ $45 1h
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of BUY Yes 36¢ $18 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 95¢ $238 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $40 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $28 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 2h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 31¢ $16 2h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 39¢ $9 3h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 4h
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 9h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $21 10h
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 17, 2026? BUY No 44¢ $9 10h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 12h
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by December BUY No 6¢ $1 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $22 14h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $42 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 82¢ $41 14h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $2 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 15h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 91¢ $46 15h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $41 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $34 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,458.34 · official $22,458.52 (match) · 3500 history records