trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? | Yes | 86¢ | 74¢ | $61 | $52 | −$9 (-14%) |
| Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 82¢ | 83¢ | $40 | $41 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 71¢ | 70¢ | $38 | $38 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 73¢ | 76¢ | $35 | $37 | +$2 (+5%) |
| Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 70¢ | 72¢ | $35 | $36 | +$1 (+3%) |
| Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 75¢ | 80¢ | $30 | $32 | +$2 (+6%) |
| Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 79¢ | 80¢ | $30 | $31 | +$1 (+2%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | No | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-96%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 29¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | No | 36¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 82¢ | 0¢ | $93 | $0 | −$93 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | Jun 14 | $564 | −$38 | -7% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 14 | $40 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 14 | $24 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 14 | $3 | $0 | -4% |
| Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 14 | $4 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 14 | $5 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 14 | $6 | $0 | -4% |
| Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 14 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $1 | +$1 | +129% |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $1 | +$1 | +54% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $2 | $0 | +17% |
| Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 13 | $30 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $94 | −$93 | -100% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? | Jun 13 | $900 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $11 | +$11 | +101% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $4 | +$2 | +44% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $48 | +$10 | +22% |
| Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world | Jun 11 | $13 | +$13 | +97% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $30 | +$9 | +29% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | May 30 | $3 | $0 | +1% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | May 27 | $200 | +$2 | +1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | May 27 | $8 | +$1 | +12% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 21 | +5.9% | -4.2% | 43% | 33% | -14.4% |
| ≤30d | 25 | +6.6% | -3.5% | 52% | 36% | -13.3% |
| ≤90d | 25 | +6.6% | -3.5% | 52% | 36% | -13.3% |
| all | 25 | +6.6% | -3.5% | 52% | 36% | -13.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -3.5% | 36% | -13.3% |
| 10% | -12.7% | 24% | -21.6% |
| 15% | -21.2% | 20% | -29.2% |
| 20% | -28.9% | 16% | -36.1% |